Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIL | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 11 | 1 |
| STL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
The Story
The Milwaukee Brewers handed the St. Louis Cardinals a 6-2 defeat at Busch Stadium on May 6, 2026, erasing what the DiamondIQ model had estimated as a 58 percent pre-game home win probability for St. Louis and ultimately running that figure to zero. Milwaukee struck early and decisively, plating four runs in the first inning and never relinquishing the lead, with a single additional run in the fifth and one more in the ninth supplementing the damage. The Cardinals managed just four hits across the contest and could not find answers against a Brewers pitching staff that controlled the game from the opening frame.
The biggest swing plays of the night worked in Milwaukee's favor by their absence as much as their presence. Andre Pallante ran into immediate trouble in the first two innings, with a Tyler Black lineout in the top of the first costing St. Louis 9.5 percent in win probability and a Sal Frelick groundout in the top of the second adding another 9.6 percent swing in Milwaukee's direction — both outs coming with runners on and representing squandered Cardinals opportunities to claw back into the game. On the other side, Victor Scott II's flyout in the bottom of the second and Nolan Gorman's strikeout in the bottom of the first each represented Cardinals failures against Brandon Sproat worth 12.2 and 11.3 percent in win probability respectively, compounding St. Louis's deficit. José Fermín grounded into a double play in the fourth to drain another 8.4 percent from the home side.
Brandon Sproat was the clear standout performer, contributing a model-leading 33.4 percent in win probability added for the Brewers. Aaron Ashby and DL Hall supplemented the pitching effort with 4.1 and 2.8 percent added respectively. Among position players, Sal Frelick led Milwaukee with 10.6 percent in win probability added, followed by Tyler Black at 8.8 percent, while Jordan Walker was the lone Cardinal to register a positive contribution at 3.8 percent WPA. The DiamondIQ model leans toward crediting Sproat's command as the central factor in a game that was effectively over long before the final out.