Minnesota Twins at Washington Nationals: Final Score & Recap

The Minnesota Twins handed the Washington Nationals an 11-3 defeat at Nationals Park on May 5, 2026, a result that completed a full reversal of the DiamondIQ model's pre-game estimate, which had opened with Washington holding a 54% win probability before closing at 0%. Minnesota scored in six of nine innings and allowed just three runs on six hits, committing no errors while Washington's defense contributed one.

The decisive sequence arrived early and was concentrated almost entirely against Nationals starter Cade Cavalli. Brooks Lee provided the first significant swing in the second inning with a double that shifted win probability 8.9 points in Minnesota's favor. The Twins then broke the game open in the fourth, a frame defined by Trevor Larnach's two-run double, the single biggest play of the night at plus 13.4 win-probability points, followed by a Lee fielders choice worth an additional 7.3 points and a Luke Keaschall walk that added another 6.2. The lone meaningful moment for Washington came in the second inning when Daylen Lile's strikeout off Taj Bradley checked a potential Nationals rally at minus 6.1 win-probability points from the home team's perspective.

Brooks Lee led all position players with a combined WPA of plus 15.7 and an RE24 of plus 4.0, while Trevor Larnach was nearly as impactful at plus 15.5 WPA and plus 1.9 RE24. Keaschall contributed a supporting plus 6.8 WPA and plus 1.2 RE24. On the mound, Taj Bradley was the standout, generating plus 16.0 WPA to pace all pitchers, with Paxton Schultz adding a modest plus 2.3. The DiamondIQ model leans heavily toward Minnesota having controlled this game from the third inning forward, with the fourth-inning eruption against Cavalli serving as the definitive turning point.