San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SD | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 14 | 0 |
| SF | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 8 | 2 |
The Story
The San Diego Padres handed the San Francisco Giants a 10-5 defeat at Oracle Park on May 5, 2026, a result the DiamondIQ model's estimate framed as a near-certainty by the final out, dropping the Giants' win probability from a pre-game 33% all the way to 0%. San Diego produced 14 hits against zero errors while San Francisco committed two errors of their own, and the Padres built their lead incrementally before breaking the game open decisively in the fourth inning.
That fourth inning was the pivot point of the contest. Facing Logan Webb, Sung-Mun Song delivered a double that swung win probability 19.1 points in San Diego's favor, the single most impactful play of the game. Jackson Merrill followed with a single worth 12.2 percentage points, and Nick Castellanos added another single at plus 8.7 points, as the Padres pushed five runs across in the frame to turn a deficit into a commanding advantage. San Francisco had shown some fight in the first two innings against Walker Buehler, with Casey Schmitt's second-inning forceout generating a 10.5-point swing for the Giants and Bryce Eldridge's first-inning lineout adding 8.8 points, but those moments proved insufficient against the avalanche San Diego produced in the fourth.
On the final WPA ledger, Jackson Merrill led all players at plus 17.8% with a RE24 of plus 2.3, making him the most valuable contributor to the Padres' win. Song finished at plus 13.3% with a RE24 of plus 0.9, while Schmitt was the top performer for San Francisco at plus 11.9% despite being on the losing side. In the bullpen, Jeremiah Estrada was the most effective San Diego reliever at plus 4.4% WPA, helping the Padres close out a comfortable road victory.