Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs: Final Score & Recap

The Chicago Cubs walked off the Cincinnati Reds 5-4 on May 4, 2026, at Wrigley Field in a game that sat dormant through three innings before erupting with a furious finish. The DiamondIQ model opened with a 63 percent pre-game probability favoring the home side, and though that edge appeared tenuous through much of the night, it ultimately resolved to a certainty by the final out.

The fourth inning cracked the game open in both directions. Ke'Bryan Hayes gave Cincinnati a lift with a solo home run off Edward Cabrera that swung win probability 19.6 points toward the Reds, but Seiya Suzuki answered in the bottom half with a three-run homer off Chase Petty, a swing worth plus 22.4 percent for Chicago that put the Cubs ahead by a run and shifted the game's center of gravity. Cincinnati chipped a run back in the top of the eighth on Emilio Pagan, but Graham Ashcraft had already done his damage, most notably inducing a key ninth-inning Carson Kelly strikeout that knocked the Reds' win probability down 29.8 points and preserved the Cubs' precarious position heading into their final at-bats. Ashcraft finished as the top pitching performer by WPA at plus 31.9 percent.

The bottom of the ninth was where the game found its identity. Pete Crow-Armstrong laced a triple off Emilio Pagan that shifted win probability 38.8 points toward Chicago, and Michael Conforto then ended it with a walk-off home run, a blow worth a staggering 45.9 percent swing that carried the Cubs from the margins of uncertainty to a clean victory. Conforto finished as the game's top batter by WPA at plus 45.9 percent, while Suzuki's plus 28.1 percent WPA and 2.1 RE24 made him the most impactful performer across the full nine innings.