San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SD | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| SF | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - | 3 | 6 | 0 |
The Story
The San Francisco Giants edged the San Diego Padres 3-2 at Oracle Park on May 4, 2026, in a low-scoring affair that the DiamondIQ model's estimate had the Giants winning with only a 35% pre-game probability before climbing to a certainty at the final out. San Francisco jumped on the board early, scoring two runs in the first inning off Randy Vásquez, while the Padres answered with one of their own. The Giants then added an insurance run in the sixth on a Luis Arraez double off Vásquez, a play that shifted win probability by 6.4 points in San Francisco's favor and proved to be the margin that held.
The pitching side of the ledger told the story most clearly. Trevor McDonald was the game's dominant force, posting a remarkable plus-44.4% WPA across his outing, setting the foundation from which San Francisco never had to look back. His second inning proved particularly decisive when Miguel Andujar struck out in a sequence that cost the Padres 7.9 percentage points of win probability. Keaton Winn and Caleb Kilian combined to add another 14.4 percentage points of pitching value, though Kilian did yield a solo home run to Ramón Laureano in the ninth, the game's single largest positive swing at plus-8.9%, before Fernando Tatis Jr. struck out to end any San Diego rally.
Among position players, Bryce Eldridge led all batters with a plus-6.7% WPA, while Arraez contributed plus-5.7% and Casey Schmitt added plus-4.3%, the latter posting the best run-expectancy figure among Giants hitters at plus-1.1 RE24. San Diego finished with just three hits and found no answer for San Francisco's pitching staff after the opening frame, leaving the DiamondIQ model's estimate to reflect what the box score confirmed.