Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 1 |
| NYY | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7 | - | 11 | 15 | 1 |
The Story
The New York Yankees defeated the Baltimore Orioles 11-3 on May 3, 2026, at Yankee Stadium, a result the DiamondIQ model anticipated from the outset, assigning New York a 76 percent pre-game win probability that climbed to 100 percent by the final out. The Yankees controlled the game through a combination of timely power and dominant late-inning relief, holding Baltimore to a largely ineffective offensive effort across nine innings despite the Orioles collecting nine hits.
The decisive turning points were concentrated at opposite ends of the game. In the bottom of the third, Aaron Judge launched a home run off Trey Gibson that shifted win probability 16.4 percent in New York's favor, putting the Yankees ahead with the most impactful single play of the contest by that measure. Baltimore briefly threatened in the fourth when Leody Taveras singled off Max Fried to generate a 10.6 percent swing, but the Orioles could not sustain momentum, and Jeremiah Jackson's ground-ball double play in the sixth off Fernando Cruz erased a potential rally at a cost of 12.6 percent in win probability. The game was fully decided in the eighth, when Jasson Dominguez added a home run off Andrew Kittredge worth 15.2 percent, capping a seven-run frame. Coby Mayo's ground-ball double play off Brent Headrick in that same inning, a 11.6 percent swing against Baltimore, ended any mathematical hope for the visitors.
Dominguez finished as the game's top performer by the DiamondIQ model's estimate, posting a WPA of plus 20.2 percent and a RE24 of plus 2.7, edging Judge, who contributed plus 17.1 percent WPA and plus 2.1 RE24. On the pitching side, Brent Headrick led all pitchers with a WPA of plus 22.1 percent, followed by Fernando Cruz at plus 9.8 percent and Yennier Cano at plus 5.5 percent. The model leans heavily on this kind of bullpen efficiency as a driver of the final margin, and New York's relievers delivered precisely that against an Orioles lineup that managed just three runs across the full game.