Toronto Blue Jays at Minnesota Twins: Final Score & Recap

The Minnesota Twins held off the Toronto Blue Jays 4-3 at Target Field on May 3, 2026, in a game that remained tight throughout before the DiamondIQ model's estimate moved from an even 50 percent pre-game home win probability all the way to 100 percent by the final out. Minnesota scored all four of its runs in a decisive bottom of the fifth inning, while Toronto scratched across a run in the sixth and two more in the ninth but could never fully close the gap.

The pivotal moment of the contest came in the top of the ninth, when Lenyn Sosa grounded into a double play off Justin Topa, a play that swung win probability by negative 21.8 percent and effectively sealed the outcome for Minnesota. That sequence came just moments after Vladimir Guerrero Jr. had delivered a single off Topa to give Toronto a momentary pulse, a play worth plus 7.6 percent in win probability. Earlier, Luke Keaschall had provided the defining blow of the fifth-inning rally with a double off Braydon Fisher that added 11.9 percent to Minnesota's win probability, setting the tone for what proved to be an insurmountable cushion. Toronto's best chance to chip away came in the sixth, but Tyler Heineman's flyout off Taylor Rogers, a negative 8.8 percent swing, extinguished any real momentum.

Among the top performers, Keaschall led all batters with plus 13.4 percent WPA and plus 0.8 RE24, while Guerrero Jr. paced Toronto at plus 9.0 percent WPA despite the loss. On the mound, Andrew Morris was the standout contributor with plus 18.7 percent WPA, followed by Taylor Rogers at plus 7.5 percent. Toronto finished with 11 hits to Minnesota's nine but left too many opportunities unconverted, and the model leaned strongly toward the Twins once that fifth-inning burst established the margin.