Houston Astros at Boston Red Sox: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 1 |
| BOS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
The Story
The Houston Astros defeated the Boston Red Sox 3-1 at Fenway Park on May 3, 2026, claiming a victory that required extra innings to seal. The DiamondIQ model entered the game giving Boston a 52% win probability as the home side, but that edge eroded across nine scoreless innings before Houston took control entirely in the tenth. The Red Sox managed their lone run in the fifth inning and held that lead into extras, but the Astros tied it in the sixth on a Jose Altuve double off Greg Weissert, a play that shifted win probability 14.1 points in Houston's favor and set the stage for what followed.
The tenth inning settled the game decisively, and it did so with the kind of sequential swings that define close contests. Braden Shewmake's sacrifice bunt off Zack Kelly was the first significant move, adding 27.8 percentage points to Houston's win probability and advancing the go-ahead runner into scoring position. Cam Smith then delivered the most consequential at-bat of the night, a single off Kelly that added 54.7 points of win probability and pushed the Astros ahead. Altuve's grounding into a double play had earlier cost Houston 38.0 points during the same half-inning, briefly keeping the outcome in doubt, and Ceddanne Rafaela's ground-ball double play in the bottom of the tenth, off Bryan Abreu, extinguished Boston's final threat and closed the game at 3-1.
Smith finished as the top offensive contributor by WPA at plus 46.1 with an RE24 of plus 0.8, while Shewmake posted the highest RE24 among position players at plus 1.4 alongside his 27.8-point win probability contribution. Willson Contreras also graded well at plus 19.1 WPA. On the mound, AJ Blubaugh led all pitchers at plus 19.3 WPA, followed by Ranger Suarez at plus 14.8 and Garrett Whitlock at plus 14.5, a trio whose collective work kept Houston within striking distance long enough for the offense to finish the job. The DiamondIQ model's estimate of Boston's win probability fell from 52% before first pitch to zero at the final out.