Chicago White Sox at San Diego Padres: Final Score & Recap

The Chicago White Sox shut out the San Diego Padres 4-0 at Petco Park on May 2, 2026, overcoming a pre-game DiamondIQ model estimate that gave the home side a 65 percent chance of winning. That probability collapsed to zero by the final out, a complete reversal driven by a handful of decisive moments against a Padres staff that could not strand Chicago's opportunistic offense.

The game turned in the sixth inning when Miguel Vargas laced a single off Michael King that added 22.3 percent to Chicago's win probability, representing the single most impactful play of the night. The White Sox tacked on two more runs in the seventh, with Sam Antonacci delivering a double off King good for another 7.4 percent swing. King's evening was particularly costly, as Edgar Quero's sixth-inning double play in the top of the fifth had briefly kept San Diego's deficit manageable at minus 6.7 percent for Chicago, but the Padres could never convert that momentum into runs of their own. Xander Bogaerts drew a walk in the ninth off Grant Taylor that nudged San Diego's win probability upward by 7.4 percent in a moment of brief hope, but Gavin Sheets immediately followed with a strikeout that swung the needle back 6.7 percent, effectively sealing the shutout.

On the individual side, Vargas finished as the game's top offensive contributor with a cumulative plus-23.0 percent WPA and plus-1.3 RE24, while Tristan Peters and Sam Antonacci each posted plus-9.2 percent WPA with RE24 figures of plus-0.7 and plus-0.9 respectively. Sean Burke was the dominant force on the mound, generating plus-36.7 percent WPA to anchor the shutout, with Seranthony Dominguez adding plus-6.4 percent and Bryan Hudson contributing plus-3.6 percent in relief. The DiamondIQ model leans toward Chicago as the clear story of the night, a team that erased a significant pre-game probability deficit with efficient, decisive offense and airtight pitching.