Toronto Blue Jays at Minnesota Twins: Final Score & Recap

The Toronto Blue Jays handed the Minnesota Twins an 11-4 defeat at Target Field on May 2, 2026, turning what had been a tight, low-scoring contest into a rout with an eight-run eighth inning that eliminated any remaining uncertainty. The DiamondIQ model opened the game giving Minnesota a 47 percent win probability at home, but by the time the final out was recorded that figure had fallen to zero. The Twins actually held a narrow advantage entering the eighth, having matched Toronto run for run through six innings, but reliever Luis García could not contain the visitors. Kazuma Okamoto delivered the decisive blow of the frame with a single that added 16.8 percent to Toronto's win probability, and the Blue Jays kept the pressure on as Lenyn Sosa followed with a single worth 10.9 percent and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. drew a walk adding another 10.1 percent. The inning alone accounted for eight runs and effectively ended the game as a contest.

Okamoto was the clear standout performer by the DiamondIQ model's estimate, finishing with a cumulative WPA of plus-24.6 percent and a RE24 of plus-1.2, a total that reflected both his eighth-inning single and a solo home run off Justin Topa in the sixth inning that had added 11.8 percent to Toronto's win probability. Sosa was nearly as impactful at plus-11.7 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus-1.3, while Trevor Larnach contributed plus-13.8 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus-1.0 on the Minnesota side in a losing effort. On the pitching side, Minnesota starter Connor Prielipp actually posted the game's top pitching WPA at plus-11.6 percent, limiting damage through his time on the mound — including inducing a double play from Jesús Sánchez in the fifth that swung 10.0 percent back toward the Twins — though the bullpen could not hold the game together behind him.