Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates: Final Score & Recap

The Pittsburgh Pirates handed the Cincinnati Reds a decisive 9-1 defeat at PNC Park on May 1, 2026, turning what the DiamondIQ model had listed as a 43 percent pre-game home win probability into a near-certainty by the middle innings. Pittsburgh built its advantage steadily across the early frames, scoring once in the first, twice in the third, once in the fourth, and four more in the fifth, leaving Cincinnati with little room to recover against a Pirates offense that finished with 12 hits.

The decisive stretch came in the third and fourth innings against Reds starter Brady Singer, and the DiamondIQ model's win-probability estimates reflected the damage in real time. Bryan Reynolds delivered the most impactful single play of the game, a triple in the bottom of the third that shifted Pittsburgh's win probability by plus-10.2 percent, and Ryan O'Hearn followed with a single that added another plus-7.0 percent. Henry Davis then extended the lead in the fourth with a home run off Singer worth plus-6.3 percent in win probability. Pittsburgh's largest swing in the other direction came in the top of the second, when Spencer Steer struck out against Mitch Keller at a cost of minus-6.1 percent to Cincinnati's chances. Marcell Ozuna added a home run in the fifth off Zach Maxwell, contributing a further plus-4.6 percent for Pittsburgh.

The individual performance leaders by the DiamondIQ model's accounting told a clear story. Reynolds finished as the top offensive contributor with plus-11.6 percent in total WPA and plus-1.5 RE24, while Davis posted plus-10.5 percent WPA and a game-high plus-2.4 RE24, and O'Hearn contributed plus-9.8 percent WPA. On the mound, Mitch Keller was the dominant figure, accumulating plus-24.5 percent WPA as Pittsburgh's pitching held Cincinnati to three hits and a single run across nine innings.