New York Mets at Los Angeles Angels: Final Score & Recap

The New York Mets overcame a two-run deficit to defeat the Los Angeles Angels 4-3 at Angel Stadium on May 1, 2026, completing a full reversal of fortune against a team the DiamondIQ model had given a 56 percent pre-game win probability. The Angels scored twice in the first inning and added another in the third to build a 3-0 lead, but the Mets erupted for three runs in the sixth inning and one more in the seventh to take control and never relinquish it. The model's estimate of a Los Angeles victory fell from that 56 percent opening figure all the way to zero by the final out.

The decisive turning point came in the top of the sixth, where Marcus Semien delivered a single off Chase Silseth that shifted win probability 20.3 percent in the Mets' favor, igniting the rally that erased the Angels' advantage. Francisco Alvarez added another single later in the frame off Brent Suter, contributing a further 9.9 percent swing. Ronny Mauricio then put New York ahead for good in the seventh with a home run off José Fermin, a blow worth 16.5 percent in win probability. On the mound, Luke Weaver was the most impactful arm by the DiamondIQ model's accounting, generating 23.3 percent in pitching WPA, with Walbert Ureña adding 16.4 percent and Nick Sandlin contributing 11.0 percent in support.

Jorge Soler was the game's most valuable individual performer by the model's estimate, finishing with a combined WPA of plus-33.8 percent and a RE24 of plus-1.6, capped by a ninth-inning groundout that, in context, represented the single biggest win-probability swing of the game at plus-31.6 percent as New York closed out the victory. Ronny Mauricio followed at plus-10.2 percent WPA, and Bo Bichette contributed plus-6.3 percent. The Angels' best late threat came in the eighth when Zach Neto grounded out off Weaver in a spot that cost Los Angeles 12.9 percent in win probability, effectively sealing New York's path to the final out.