Los Angeles Dodgers at St. Louis Cardinals: Final Score & Recap

The St. Louis Cardinals defeated the Los Angeles Dodgers 7-2 at Busch Stadium on May 1, 2026, a result that moved the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Cardinals win from 51 percent before first pitch to a certainty by the final out. St. Louis struck early and added to its cushion late, with the Dodgers never mounting a sustained threat against a Cardinals pitching staff that controlled the game from the third inning forward.

The decisive sequence began in the bottom of the third, when Alec Burleson deposited a home run off Emmet Sheehan, a swing that shifted win probability by 8.3 percent in St. Louis's favor and gave the Cardinals a lead they would not relinquish. The Cardinals had already plated three in the first inning, so Burleson's blast extended what was already a comfortable early advantage. Los Angeles briefly showed signs of life in the sixth, when Teoscar Hernandez drew a walk off Matthew Liberatore that nudged Dodgers win probability up 7.3 percent, but Kyle Tucker immediately grounded into a sacrifice fly that erased that gain and cost the Dodgers 6.4 percent. Jordan Walker's double off Edgardo Henriquez in the seventh, worth 7.5 percent in win-probability added, helped St. Louis put the game away with a three-run frame that pushed the final margin to five.

By the DiamondIQ model's accounting, the Cardinals' top offensive contributors were Walker at plus-10.1 percent WPA, Nathan Church at plus-9.4 percent, and Burleson at plus-9.2 percent. On the mound, Matthew Liberatore was the standout, posting plus-13.5 percent WPA despite the Dodgers briefly threatening against him in the sixth. George Soriano added plus-10.1 percent out of the bullpen, with Jack Dreyer contributing plus-5.0 percent to close it out. The Dodgers committed two errors against a Cardinals lineup that finished with 12 hits, and Los Angeles managed only seven hits in a flat offensive performance.