Houston Astros at Boston Red Sox: Final Score & Recap

The Boston Red Sox defeated the Houston Astros 3-1 at Fenway Park on May 1, 2026, in a game that was largely settled in a single decisive inning. All four runs of the contest came in the third, and Boston never surrendered the lead after that frame. The DiamondIQ model entered the game with Boston at a 58% win probability as the home side, and by the final out that figure had climbed to 100%.

The third inning told the full story. Carlos Correa gave Houston an early advantage with a home run off Jake Bennett, a swing that added 10.5% to the Astros' win probability and represented their lone moment of genuine leverage in the game. Boston answered immediately and emphatically, as Jarren Duran launched a home run off Mike Burrows that swung the win probability by 21.4% in the Red Sox's favor, the single most impactful play of the night according to the DiamondIQ model's estimate. That one swing erased Houston's lead and gave Boston a cushion they would not relinquish through the remaining six innings.

Duran finished as the game's top performer by WPA, posting a plus-16.1% mark to go with a RE24 of plus-1.2, while Correa's solo shot left him at plus-10.9% WPA despite Houston's loss. Roman Anthony contributed a plus-4.9% WPA for Boston. Houston showed flashes of threat in the eighth, when Yainer Diaz doubled off Garrett Whitlock to add 6.9% to the Astros' probability, but Cam Smith's pop out in that same inning erased 10.5% of Houston's chances and effectively ended any realistic comeback. On the mound, Zack Kelly led Boston's relievers at plus-10.0% WPA, with Whitlock and Aroldis Chapman each adding positive contributions to preserve the two-run margin.