The Cincinnati Reds defeated the Colorado Rockies 6-4 at Great American Ball Park on April 30, 2026, a result the DiamondIQ model anticipated from the outset, assigning Cincinnati a 73 percent pre-game win probability that ultimately climbed to 100 percent by the final out. Colorado struck first with two runs in the top of the first, but the Reds chipped away beginning in the second inning and never surrendered the lead once they seized it.
The decisive moment came in the bottom of the fifth, when TJ Friedl connected on a home run off Michael Lorenzen, a swing that shifted win probability by plus 22.8 percent in Cincinnati's favor and effectively turned the game's competitive center of gravity toward the Reds for good. Colorado's best chance to respond came in the top of the eighth, but Willi Castro's flyout against Tony Santillan deflated that threat, costing the Rockies 13.8 percentage points of win probability. Lorenzen was a focal point throughout the early innings as well, as Sal Stewart's groundout in the bottom of the first and Will Benson's flyout in the second each carried negative win-probability swings that kept Cincinnati from extending its advantage sooner.
Friedl finished as the game's top offensive contributor by WPA at plus 18.5 percent with a RE24 of plus 1.1, while Nathaniel Lowe posted plus 14.6 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus 1.3, and Spencer Steer added plus 13.4 percent WPA alongside the game's best RE24 among position players at plus 1.7. On the pitching side, Tony Santillan led all hurlers with a plus 8.1 percent WPA, followed by Connor Phillips at plus 7.2 percent and Andrew Abbott at plus 5.7 percent, a collective effort from the Cincinnati bullpen and rotation that secured a comfortable final margin.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.