The Philadelphia Phillies walked off the San Francisco Giants 6-5 in ten innings on April 29, 2026, at Citizens Bank Park, completing a dramatic late-game comeback that carried the DiamondIQ model's estimate from a 51 percent pregame home win probability all the way to 100 percent by the final out. The Giants carried a lead into the ninth inning, and Jung Hoo Lee's single off José Alvarado in the top half — the second-most impactful play of the game at plus 34.1 percent win probability — briefly extended their grip on the contest. San Francisco would add one more run in the top of the tenth on Heliot Ramos's single off Chase Shugart, a swing worth plus 32.0 percent win probability, pushing the Giants to 5-4 before Philadelphia answered for the last time.
The Phillies' comeback was built almost entirely on the bottom of the ninth against Keaton Winn. Brandon Marsh opened the sequence with a double worth plus 25.1 percent win probability, and Trea Turner's ground into a double play briefly cratered Philadelphia's chances by 32.1 percent. Kyle Schwarber then delivered the pivotal blow of the entire game, lashing a double off Winn that swung win probability by plus 44.4 percent and ultimately tied the contest, setting up the extras. Schwarber finished as the game's most impactful batter at plus 54.6 percent WPA and plus 2.7 RE24, while Marsh added plus 25.1 percent WPA. Despite San Francisco's 13 hits against Philadelphia's 9, the Giants' inability to hold the ninth-inning lead proved fatal.
On the pitching side, Caleb Kilian led Giants relievers with plus 15.3 percent WPA, followed by Brad Keller at plus 11.0 percent and Tim Mayza at plus 9.2 percent, meaning Philadelphia's bullpen work was collectively insufficient to preserve the advantage Winn ultimately surrendered. The Giants finished without an error in the field, making the loss entirely a product of late-inning execution, particularly in that pivotal ninth. The DiamondIQ model, which had framed this as a near coin-flip before first pitch, moved to complete certainty only after Philadelphia finally pushed across the winning run in the tenth.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.