The Milwaukee Brewers handed the Arizona Diamondbacks a lopsided 13-1 defeat on April 30, 2026, at American Family Field, a game that was never particularly close and ended with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of Milwaukee's win probability reaching 100 percent. The Brewers opened scoring with three runs in the first inning and added three more in the third, building a lead that Arizona never threatened in any meaningful way. The Diamondbacks managed just six hits, committed two errors, and scored their lone run in the fourth inning, finishing the evening as thoroughly outplayed in every phase of the game.
The decisive sequence came in the bottom of the third, when William Contreras launched a home run off Michael Soroka that shifted Milwaukee's win probability by plus 8.6 percent, representing the single largest swing of the contest by WPA. Contreras was the clear offensive engine for the Brewers, finishing with a game-high plus 12.9 percent WPA and a plus 5.3 RE24, reflecting how consistently his contributions materialized in high-leverage situations. Garrett Mitchell added plus 8.2 percent WPA on the evening despite his biggest individual play being a flyout that, in context, moved the needle by plus 5.8 percent, and Sal Frelick contributed plus 5.4 percent WPA. On the other side, Alek Thomas's strikeout in the top of the second against Grant Anderson represented Arizona's most damaging moment by win-probability, costing the Diamondbacks 7.8 percent of their remaining win equity at that stage.
On the mound, Grant Anderson led Milwaukee's pitching staff by WPA at plus 9.2 percent, with Shane Drohan adding plus 4.4 percent in a collective effort that held Arizona's lineup to minimal production. Soroka, facing a Brewer lineup that produced 14 hits and 13 runs total, absorbed damage in the first, third, fourth, and sixth innings across multiple trips through the order. The DiamondIQ model had entered the game with Milwaukee as a modest 54 percent home favorite, but the Brewers played well beyond that projection from the opening frame onward.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.