The Atlanta Braves walked off the Detroit Tigers 4-3 on April 29, 2026, at Truist Park, with Matt Olson delivering a two-run home run off Kenley Jansen in the bottom of the ninth to erase a 3-2 deficit and end the game. The DiamondIQ model had opened with a 75% pre-game win probability for the home side, and after Olson's decisive swing the model's estimate reached 100%. That single at-bat represented the largest win-probability swing of the night, a +67.7% shift that erased what had looked like a Tigers victory in the making.
Detroit had built its lead through a two-run second inning and a Riley Greene solo home run off JR Ritchie in the third, the latter carrying a +10.7% win-probability impact. Atlanta managed two runs in the first inning but went quiet for seven frames, and the Braves appeared to be fading when Drake Baldwin's groundout to end the eighth represented a -22.1% swing against them, the second-largest momentum shift of the game. Ozzie Albies kept the ninth alive with a walk off Jansen worth +12.3%, setting the table for Olson's decisive blow. Tarik Skubal was the most impactful pitcher by the DiamondIQ model's accounting at +44.0%, followed by Kyle Finnegan at +23.3% and Dylan Lee at +12.9% on the Atlanta side.
Olson finished as the game's top performer with a +67.4% WPA and +1.6 RE24, while Albies contributed a +12.1% WPA and led all batters with a +1.8 RE24. Greene was Detroit's most productive bat at +5.8% WPA, though his third-inning home run ultimately proved insufficient against a Braves lineup that needed only one swing to close the night.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.