The Colorado Rockies handed the Cincinnati Reds a lopsided 13-2 defeat at Great American Ball Park on April 29, 2026, erasing what the DiamondIQ model had pegged as a 71 percent pre-game home win probability for Cincinnati and reducing it to zero by game's end. Colorado scored in the first, third, seventh, and ninth innings, with that final frame producing a five-run surge that put the finishing touches on a dominant road performance. The Rockies finished with 15 hits and committed no errors, while Cincinnati managed 10 hits but could never generate consistent run support against a Colorado pitching staff that kept them off the board until the ninth.
The decisive early moments tilted sharply in Colorado's favor. In the bottom of the first, Sal Stewart's single off Tomoyuki Sugano carried a negative 12.6 percent win-probability swing against the Reds, reflecting a missed opportunity to establish momentum at home. Moments later in the bottom of the second, Ke'Bryan Hayes flew out against Sugano in the single most consequential play of the night by win-probability impact, a swing of negative 14.9 percent that effectively extinguished Cincinnati's remaining realistic path to a comeback before the game had truly settled. On the Colorado side, Kyle Karros struck out in the top of the first off Brandon Williamson for a positive 11.0 percent swing from the Rockies' perspective, and Jordan Beck grounded into a double play in the second that added another 9.7 percent, reflecting how thoroughly Williamson was neutralized once the Rockies' offense got rolling around him. Willi Castro's double in the top of the third added 8.4 percent and kept Colorado's threat alive against Williamson.
Tomoyuki Sugano was the clear standout performer of the evening, posting a remarkable plus-36.4 percent WPA to lead all pitchers and anchor the Rockies' effort. His ability to suppress Cincinnati's lineup through the heart of the game proved to be the central factor in the outcome. Among Colorado's batters, Karros led with plus-8.5 percent WPA, followed closely by Beck at plus-8.4 percent and Willi Castro at plus-8.0 percent with a RE24 of positive 1.3, the only batter among the top three to post a positive run-expectancy contribution. Brennan Bernardino added six percent WPA in relief to help close out the victory.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.