The Atlanta Braves defeated the Detroit Tigers 5-2 at Truist Park on April 28, 2026, a result the DiamondIQ model anticipated from the outset, having installed Atlanta as a 73% favorite before first pitch. The Braves built their margin methodically, scoring twice in the third inning, adding a run in the seventh, and closing with two more in the eighth, while Detroit managed its only two runs in the top of the ninth against a decided outcome. Atlanta finished with nine hits and committed no errors; Detroit managed six hits against one error.
The game's most consequential sequence centered on Mike Yastrzemski, whose double in the bottom of the third off Casey Mize carried a win-probability swing of plus-6.4 percent, and whose single in the bottom of the seventh off Burch Smith added another plus-7.3 percent, making him the game's top offensive contributor at plus-12.1 percent WPA and plus-1.3 RE24. Hao-Yu Lee provided the brightest moment for Detroit, pulling a double off Martín Pérez in the top of the fifth for a plus-7.1 percent swing, the largest positive play for the Tigers all night, though it produced no runs and ultimately reflected in his modest plus-0.2 RE24. Dillon Dingler also contributed positively for Detroit at plus-6.8 percent WPA and plus-0.7 RE24, though the offense could not string those moments into sustained pressure.
On the mound, Didier Fuentes was Atlanta's most valuable arm by win probability, contributing plus-13.6 percent WPA, followed by Martín Pérez at plus-9.8 percent despite surrendering the Lee double. Brant Hurter added plus-6.0 percent WPA in support. Casey Mize absorbed the difficult early innings for Detroit, overcoming early threats including a Yastrzemski double and consecutive groundout and flyout sequences in the first and second that briefly suppressed Atlanta's run-scoring opportunities. The DiamondIQ model's estimate moved to 100 percent by game's end, confirming that Atlanta's control of the contest was never meaningfully in doubt after the third inning.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.