The Kansas City Royals defeated the Athletics 4-1 on April 28, 2026, at Sutter Health Park, completing a comeback that required extra innings to resolve. The DiamondIQ model's estimate had Oakland entering the game as a 64 percent favorite and leaving with a zero percent chance of winning, a full reversal driven almost entirely by a single swing in the tenth inning.
The game's decisive moment arrived in the top of the tenth when Bobby Witt Jr. connected on a home run off Justin Sterner, a swing the DiamondIQ model calculated as the single largest win-probability shift of the night at plus 59.6 percent. That blow broke a 1-1 tie and gave Kansas City a three-run cushion it would not relinquish, accounting for the lion's share of Witt's final tally of plus 47.6 percent WPA and plus 1.7 RE24 on the night. The only other run Kansas City had scored came in the sixth inning, when Salvador Perez lifted a home run off Hogan Harris for a plus 13.8 percent swing. Perez finished with plus 16.8 percent WPA, and Carlos Cortes contributed plus 15.2 percent WPA with a plus 0.9 RE24 line to round out the Royals' most impactful offensive performers.
Oakland threatened most meaningfully in the eighth, where Jeff McNeil's flyout off Matt Strahm registered as a minus 14.3 percent swing for the Athletics, and Zack Gelof's strikeout in the same frame cost them another 11.5 percent. Nick Kurtz's strikeout against Nick Mears in the ninth added plus 14.0 percent to the Royals' ledger by ending a potential rally. On the pitching side, Aaron Civale led Kansas City's staff with plus 15.5 percent WPA, followed by Scott Barlow at plus 14.7 percent and Jack Perkins at plus 13.5 percent, a collective bullpen effort that held Oakland scoreless from the second inning forward.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.