The Toronto Blue Jays defeated the Boston Red Sox 3-0 at Rogers Centre on April 28, 2026, a result the DiamondIQ model's estimate pointed toward from the start, with a pre-game home win probability of 59% that climbed steadily to 100% by game's end. Toronto's offense did its most consequential work in the third inning, and the pitching staff allowed nothing throughout, combining on a four-hit shutout against a Red Sox lineup that never found consistent footing.
The decisive sequence came in the bottom of the third against Boston starter Payton Tolle. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. opened the frame with a double that added 3.6% to Toronto's win probability, Andrés Giménez followed with a single worth another 3.8%, and then Kazuma Okamoto delivered the biggest single swing of the game, a run-scoring single that shifted win probability by 15.5% in the Blue Jays' favor. That third-inning burst accounted for two of Toronto's three runs and effectively decided the contest. The Blue Jays added an insurance run in the fifth when Guerrero Jr. singled off Zack Kelly, a hit worth 8.0% in win probability that pushed his individual WPA total to plus-11.3% on the night, the highest among position players alongside a RE24 of plus-1.2. Okamoto finished at plus-10.4% WPA, and Giménez contributed plus-2.3%.
On the mound, Trey Yesavage was the story, posting a game-high plus-19.6% WPA and anchoring a Toronto staff that kept Boston's four hits from ever producing a run. Jeff Hoffman added plus-5.0% WPA in relief, and Tyler Rogers contributed plus-4.5% to close it out. The Red Sox went hitless in the first two innings and never seriously threatened, finishing without a run on four hits as the model's lean toward Toronto proved entirely justified.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.