The Milwaukee Brewers routed the Arizona Diamondbacks 13-2 at American Family Field on April 28, 2026, turning what began as a competitive game into a decisive blowout. The DiamondIQ model opened with a 54 percent pre-game home win probability for Milwaukee, a figure that climbed steadily before reaching 100 percent by game's end. The damage accumulated methodically, with Milwaukee scoring in the second, fourth, and fifth innings before erupting for eight runs in the sixth to put the game entirely out of reach. Arizona managed just three hits and committed an error, while the Brewers collected 15 hits without a miscue.
The turning point came in stages. Joey Ortiz delivered the most consequential single swing of the game, his base hit in the bottom of the fourth off Merrill Kelly registering a win-probability addition of plus-16.0 percent, the largest individual play of the night. The fifth inning produced a flurry of pivotal moments on both sides: Tyler Black added a single off Kelly worth plus-10.6 percent, and Brice Turang followed with a double that pushed another plus-7.8 percent into Milwaukee's column. Arizona briefly applied pressure in the top of the fifth, with James McCann singling off Chad Patrick for plus-10.9 percent and Nolan Arenado drawing a walk worth plus-8.7 percent, but the Brewers answered immediately and emphatically.
Among Milwaukee's individual performers, Ortiz finished as the game's top contributor by WPA at plus-16.9 percent with a RE24 of plus-1.8, while Sal Frelick posted the strongest run-environment figure among position players at plus-2.4 RE24 to go with plus-11.6 percent WPA. Tyler Black rounded out Milwaukee's top three at plus-9.4 percent WPA. On the pitching side, Shane Drohan led all arms with plus-5.0 percent WPA, limiting Arizona's ability to generate any meaningful threat as the game progressed.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.