The Seattle Mariners took a tight road game at Busch Stadium on April 26, 2026, defeating the St. Louis Cardinals 3-2 in a contest that stayed within one run throughout. The DiamondIQ model's estimate opened with St. Louis holding a 58% win probability before first pitch, but that figure reached 0% by the final out as Seattle pieced together just enough offense to escape with the win. Neither club scored through the first two innings, and the game moved deliberately through the middle frames before a pair of late swings rewrote the outcome entirely.
The pivotal sequence arrived in the top of the ninth, when Rob Refsnyder sent a home run off Cardinals reliever JoJo Romero that swung win probability by 38.4 percentage points in Seattle's favor, the single most consequential play of the game. That blast broke a 2-2 tie and gave the Mariners the lead they would not relinquish. St. Louis had pulled even in the bottom of the sixth on a Nathan Church home run off Emerson Hancock, a swing worth 14.7 WPA that briefly shifted momentum back toward the home side. Cal Raleigh had given Seattle an earlier edge with a solo shot off Michael McGreevy in the fourth, adding 11.4 WPA, and Cole Young's single in the seventh contributed another 14.3 WPA to keep the visitors ahead before the Church blast tied things up.
Refsnyder finished as the game's top performer by WPA at plus-38.4 percent with a RE24 of plus-1.0, his ninth-inning blow proving the decisive blow. On the Cardinals side, JJ Wetherholt registered a notable plus-34.0 WPA figure despite the loss, a reflection of his pop out ending the game against José A. Ferrer being the moment that sealed Seattle's fate rather than extended it. On the mound, Eduard Bazardo led all pitchers with plus-15.0 WPA for Seattle, while Michael McGreevy posted plus-14.3 WPA for St. Louis despite surrendering the Raleigh homer, and Ryne Stanek contributed plus-10.6 WPA in support of the Mariners' bullpen effort.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.