The Pittsburgh Pirates defeated the Milwaukee Brewers 6-3 on April 25, 2026, at American Family Field, with the decisive damage coming in extra innings. The game was tied through nine frames before Pittsburgh erupted for three runs in the tenth, erasing what the DiamondIQ model had estimated as a 45 percent pre-game home win probability for Milwaukee, ultimately collapsing it to zero.
The tenth inning was defined by two pivotal hits. Bryan Reynolds delivered a single off Angel Zerpa that swung win probability 34.7 percent in Pittsburgh's favor, the single largest play of the contest. Nick Gonzales followed with another single, this time off Grant Anderson, adding another 28.0 percent swing and effectively closing the door on any Milwaukee comeback. The two hits in succession transformed a tense extra-inning situation into a decisive three-run rally. Earlier, in the fourth inning, Konnor Griffin had provided Pittsburgh's first meaningful push with a single off Jacob Misiorowski that shifted the win probability 7.2 percent toward the Pirates.
Pittsburgh's pitching staff also played a critical role in preserving the tie long enough for the offense to break through. Aaron Ashby led all pitchers with a WPA of plus 18.9 percent, followed by Abner Uribe at plus 13.5 percent and Dennis Santana at plus 10.9 percent. Gregory Soto aided the cause by striking out Brice Turang to close the bottom of the ninth, a moment worth plus 14.0 percent in win probability for Pittsburgh. Reynolds and Gonzales finished as the top two offensive contributors by WPA, at plus 33.6 and plus 30.1 percent respectively, with Gonzales also posting the game's highest RE24 among position players at plus 2.1.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.