The San Francisco Giants defeated the Miami Marlins 6-2 at Oracle Park on April 25, 2026, in a game that was evenly matched at the outset before tilting decisively in San Francisco's favor across the middle innings. The DiamondIQ model opened with a 50% home win probability and closed at 100%, reflecting how thoroughly the Giants took command once their offense came to life against Marlins starter Eury Pérez.
The decisive stretch came in the fifth and sixth innings, with Pérez at the center of each critical moment. Drew Gilbert's home run in the bottom of the fifth moved the needle by 13.1 percentage points in the DiamondIQ model's estimate, giving the Giants their first lead of the game. The sixth inning was where the contest was effectively settled. Casey Schmitt delivered the biggest single play of the night, connecting for a home run off Pérez that shifted win probability by 21.1 points, the largest swing of the game. Matt Chapman followed with a double worth 8.2 points of win probability, and after Pérez was relieved, Patrick Bailey added a single off Anthony Bender that pushed the frame's impact further, accounting for another 7.4 points. The Giants plated three runs in the sixth and added two more in the eighth to reach the final margin. Notably, a Heliot Ramos groundout in the fourth, also off Pérez, represented a missed opportunity that cost the Giants 7.3 points of win probability at the time.
Schmitt finished as the top offensive contributor with a WPA of plus-15.4 and an RE24 of plus-1.2, followed by Chapman at plus-12.2 WPA and Gilbert at plus-8.4. On the mound, Robbie Ray led all pitchers with a plus-9.7 WPA, supported by Matt Gage at plus-7.1 and Keaton Winn at plus-5.0, as San Francisco's staff held the Marlins to two runs on six hits with no errors on their part.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.