The Los Angeles Dodgers pulled away from the Chicago Cubs 12-4 on April 25, 2026, at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium, a result the DiamondIQ model's estimate tracked from a 58 percent pregame home win probability all the way to 100 percent by the final out. The game turned decisively in the third and fourth innings, when Los Angeles strung together the plays that effectively ended the contest. Max Muncy's home run off Colin Rea in the bottom of the third shifted win probability by 17.2 percentage points, the single largest swing of the evening. The fourth inning proved even more damaging to Chicago's chances, as Teoscar Hernández's single off Javier Assad added 14.1 points and Alex Freeland's double off Rea contributed another 13.6, the two blows part of a six-run frame that gave the Dodgers a commanding cushion.
The offensive performances on both sides were headlined by a pair of players who swung the game's probability ledger in opposite directions. Muncy finished as the night's top batter by WPA at plus-24.7 percent with a RE24 of plus-2.9, driving Los Angeles's offense in the pivotal middle innings. Moisés Ballesteros provided Chicago's most consequential contributions, accounting for plus-23.4 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus-2.6 through a fourth-inning home run off Roki Sasaki worth 11.8 probability points and a sixth-inning walk off Jack Dreyer that added 12.3, though neither proved enough to slow the Dodgers' momentum. Hernández rounded out the top performers at plus-13.3 percent WPA. On the mound, Will Klein led all pitchers with a plus-6.3 percent WPA contribution as Los Angeles closed out the final innings with little resistance, finishing with a 12-4 final on 14 hits.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.