The Atlanta Braves defeated the Philadelphia Phillies 5-3 at Truist Park on April 24, 2026, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate opening at an 86 percent home win probability before ultimately reaching 100 percent. The game's scoring came in two concentrated bursts, with the third inning producing four of the eight eventual runs and the bottom of the sixth swinging the contest decisively in Atlanta's favor.
The third inning set the tone for the offensive exchange. Trea Turner gave Philadelphia an early lead with a home run off Grant Holmes, a swing the DiamondIQ model valued at plus-18.1 percent in win probability for the Phillies. Atlanta answered immediately in the bottom half when Ronald Acuña Jr. connected off Andrew Painter for a home run of his own, generating a plus-17.2 percent swing for the Braves and erasing Philadelphia's advantage. Bryce Harper added a solo shot off Holmes in the top of the fifth for a plus-12.3 percent swing, keeping the Phillies within reach at 3-2 entering the sixth.
The bottom of the sixth proved decisive. Acuña drew a walk off Painter worth plus-13.6 percent in win probability, and Michael Harris II then delivered the game's single largest swing, a double off Painter that registered plus-25.3 percent and effectively closed out the Phillies' prospects. Turner finished as the top batter by WPA at plus-28.2 percent with a plus-2.2 RE24, while Acuña posted plus-26.3 percent and a game-best plus-2.4 RE24. Out of the Atlanta bullpen, Joel Payamps contributed plus-8.1 percent, Aaron Bummer added plus-7.2 percent, and Robert Suarez closed at plus-6.3 percent to preserve the two-run final margin.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.