The San Diego Padres rallied past the Colorado Rockies 10-8 at Coors Field on April 23, 2026, completing a comeback that the DiamondIQ model had given just a 26 percent chance of happening before first pitch. Colorado grabbed an early foothold with four runs in the second inning, highlighted by TJ Rumfield's double off Matt Waldron that shifted win probability 13.3 percent in the Rockies' favor. An Ezequiel Tovar pop out in that same frame was nonetheless measured as an 11.8 percent swing for Colorado within the broader context of the inning's threat level. San Diego chipped back with single runs in the fourth and fifth innings, and Ramón Laureano's triple off Zach Agnos in the top of the fourth added 9.8 percent to the Padres' win probability, keeping the deficit manageable heading into the late innings.
The game turned decisively in the top of the ninth, when San Diego erupted for five runs against Victor Vodnik to erase an 8-5 deficit. The sequence was defined by Gavin Sheets, whose home run off Vodnik swung win probability 46.7 percent toward the Padres in a single swing, the largest leverage moment of the game by a wide margin. Miguel Andujar followed with a single that added another 30.6 percent, effectively closing the door on any Colorado response. Sheets finished as the game's most impactful offensive performer by the DiamondIQ model's estimate, posting a plus-46.2 percent WPA and a plus-2.0 RE24, while Andujar contributed plus-26.1 percent WPA and plus-1.2 RE24. Tovar, despite his strong WPA mark of plus-24.3 percent, finished with a minus-1.8 RE24, reflecting the mixed run-environment value of his plate appearances across the game.
On the pitching side, Seth Halvorsen led San Diego's relievers with a plus-6.4 percent WPA contribution, followed by Colorado's Ryan Feltner at plus-4.5 percent and Juan Mejia at plus-2.6 percent. The Rockies finished with two errors against none for San Diego, a disparity that contributed to the late-inning unraveling. Colorado had held a commanding position through the middle innings but could not hold the advantage as the DiamondIQ model's estimate of their win probability collapsed from 74 percent before the game's start to zero percent by the final out.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.