The New York Yankees defeated the Boston Red Sox 4-1 at Fenway Park on April 22, 2026, completing a dominant performance that left little doubt about the outcome. The DiamondIQ model had assigned Boston a 30 percent pre-game win probability, a figure that collapsed to zero by the final out. New York struck early and decisively, plating three runs in the first inning against Ranger Suarez, and added a fourth in the third on a Giancarlo Stanton double worth 5.1 percent in win probability added. Boston's lone run came in the ninth, far too late to threaten.
The game's most pivotal sequence unfolded in the bottom of the second inning, where the Red Sox had a fleeting opportunity to get back into the contest but failed to capitalize. Jarren Duran's double off Max Fried generated a 7.8 percent swing in Boston's favor, briefly tightening the game's probability profile. However, Fried immediately shut the door, retiring Isiah Kiner-Falefa on a strikeout that swung win probability 6.3 percent back toward New York, then punching out Connor Wong for an additional 5.5 percent swing. Those back-to-back strikeouts effectively ended Boston's best chance of the evening. Duran finished as the game's top batter by WPA at plus-10.2 percent with a RE24 of plus-2.3, though his individual contributions could not overcome New York's early lead.
Max Fried was the story of the game by a wide margin, accumulating plus-29.7 percent in win probability added to lead all pitchers. Zack Kelly and Eduardo Rivera provided complementary relief work, adding 2.7 and 1.4 percent respectively. Among position players, Stanton and Aaron Judge each contributed plus-0.7 RE24 in support of a Yankees lineup that needed little help after the opening frame. The DiamondIQ model's estimate reflected a lopsided contest from nearly start to finish.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.