The Chicago White Sox rolled to an 11-5 victory over the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field on April 21, 2026, delivering a result that few anticipated given the DiamondIQ model's pre-game estimate of a 70 percent home win probability for Arizona. Chicago struck early and often, plating four runs in the first inning and three more in the second to effectively end the competitive phase of the game before it began. The Diamondbacks never recovered from that seven-run deficit through two frames, and by game's end the DiamondIQ model's estimate of an Arizona win had fallen to zero percent.
The biggest swings in win probability came in those critical early innings, largely through Arizona's failure to answer back. In the bottom of the second, Ildemaro Vargas's flyout off Sean Burke represented a minus-17.5 percent win-probability shift, the single most damaging individual play of the game from the Diamondbacks' perspective. A half-inning earlier, Adrian Del Castillo had grounded into a double play off Burke that cost Arizona 15.4 percent in win probability, snuffing out what could have been a rally in the first. On the Chicago side, Everson Pereira's strikeout in the top of the second produced a plus-16.3 percent WPA swing, and Tristan Peters added a plus-12.6 percent contribution with a strikeout in the top of the first, both coming against Merrill Kelly. Munetaka Murakami also connected for a home run off Kelly in the second that added 2.9 percent to Chicago's win probability.
Sean Burke was the dominant individual performer of the night, posting a plus-34.4 percent WPA as the pitching anchor for Chicago. Among position players, Pereira led the way at plus-15.8 percent WPA, followed by Peters at plus-13.3 percent and Murakami at plus-3.4 percent. Jonathan Loaisiga and Lucas Sims each contributed plus-0.2 percent WPA in relief. Chicago finished with 14 hits and committed no errors, while Arizona managed eight hits with an equal defensive performance, though the damage was already long done by the time both clubs played a competitive ninth inning that ended 3-3 in that frame alone.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.