The Chicago Cubs defeated the Philadelphia Phillies 7-4 at Wrigley Field on April 21, 2026, a result the DiamondIQ model anticipated from the outset, setting the home team's pre-game win probability at 77% and watching it climb steadily to 100% by the final out. Chicago's offense was slow to develop, as the game remained scoreless through four innings, but the Cubs broke through in the fifth and never relinquished the lead, ultimately posting three runs in the seventh to put the game away. Philadelphia managed a two-run eighth and a single run in the ninth, but the damage had already been done against a Cubs club that finished with 12 hits to the Phillies' six.
The decisive stretch of the game ran through the fifth and sixth innings, where the biggest win-probability swings were concentrated. A Moisés Ballesteros walk off Orion Kerkering in the bottom of the fifth carried a +11.4% win-probability swing, opening the door for the Cubs, while Kyle Schwarber's home run off Shota Imanaga in the top of the sixth briefly redirected momentum Philadelphia's way at +13.8%. The Cubs answered emphatically when Michael Busch singled off Tanner Banks later that inning for the single largest batting win-probability swing of the game at +19.4%, effectively neutralizing the Schwarber blast. Busch had been part of two earlier momentum-damping moments as well, striking out in the bottom of the fifth for a -9.0% swing, a sequence that illustrated how razor-thin the game's middle innings actually were despite the final margin.
Jesús Luzardo was the dominant individual performer by the DiamondIQ model's estimate, leading all pitchers with a +28.4% WPA contribution, anchored in part by his strikeouts of Pete Crow-Armstrong in the second (-9.3% for Chicago's offense) and Busch in the fifth. Among position players, Ian Happ led the Cubs with +13.4% WPA, while Ballesteros contributed +11.4% and Schwarber added +11.1% despite pitching from the opposing side of the ledger. Shota Imanaga finished with +9.2% WPA on the mound, and Caleb Thielbar added +2.9% in relief as Chicago completed a convincing home win.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.