The Toronto Blue Jays handed the Los Angeles Angels a 5-2 defeat at Angel Stadium on April 20, 2026, overcoming a game in which the DiamondIQ model's estimate opened with the home side holding a 59 percent win probability. Toronto chipped away methodically, scoring in five of nine innings and never allowing Los Angeles to regain meaningful footing after the third inning.
The decisive swing came in the top of the third, when Vladimir Guerrero Jr. connected on a home run off Reid Detmers, a blow the DiamondIQ model valued at a +18.4 percent win-probability shift that reframed the entire contest. The Angels had answered with a run in the first but could not sustain pressure against Toronto's pitching staff. Los Angeles had its clearest path back in the bottom of the sixth, yet Jo Adell grounded into a double play off Braydon Fisher, a sequence that drained 11.9 percent from the Angels' win probability and effectively collapsed their window. A Nolan Schanuel fielding error in the eighth briefly reopened a narrow lane, adding 6.6 percent back to the home side, but Yoan Moncada grounded out to Tyler Rogers moments later, extinguishing that opportunity at a cost of 8.8 percent.
Guerrero finished as the game's most impactful offensive player with a combined +21.4 percent WPA and a RE24 of +2.0, while Nathan Lukes contributed a key seventh-inning single off Chase Silseth worth +10.9 percent WPA, closing out at +12.2 percent for the game. On the mound, Louis Varland led all pitchers with +14.3 percent WPA, with Braydon Fisher and Tyler Rogers each adding to a Toronto bullpen that finished cleanly despite the late error.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.