The Cincinnati Reds erased a three-run deficit over the final two innings to defeat the Minnesota Twins 7-4 at Target Field on April 19, 2026, completing a comeback that the DiamondIQ model's estimate reflected emphatically — Minnesota entered the ninth inning with a clear path to victory, but finished with a 0% win probability by the game's end. The Twins had built their lead on a first-inning run and a two-run third, and that margin held through eight innings before Cincinnati unraveled the game in dramatic fashion.
The turning point arrived in the top of the ninth, where TJ Friedl delivered the single most impactful swing of the night, lashing a double off Andrew Morris that shifted win probability by 57.7 percentage points in Cincinnati's favor. That hit catalyzed a three-run Reds frame, though Minnesota answered with a run of its own in the bottom half — Austin Martin's double off Emilio Pagán added 30.1 percentage points to the Twins' win probability, and James Outman followed with a double worth 25.1 points, briefly keeping Minnesota's hopes alive. But those rallies came up short, and the Reds put the game away with three more runs in the tenth. A fielding error charged to the Twins on a play involving Eugenio Suárez off Garrett Acton swung win probability 33.7 points toward Cincinnati, and Rece Hinds followed with a double worth another 32.5 points to close out the scoring.
Friedl finished as the game's most valuable offensive contributor by WPA at plus 51.0% with a RE24 of plus 1.0, while Suárez posted plus 30.7% WPA on the strength of Minnesota's defensive miscues. On the pitching side, Bailey Ober was the most effective arm on the night at plus 19.8% WPA, doing the bulk of the damage-limiting work for Minnesota before the late-inning collapse, with Taylor Rogers adding plus 14.0% in relief. The Reds' three-error performance by the Twins proved decisive, as Cincinnati converted those mistakes into the margin of victory.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.