The Toronto Blue Jays dismantled the Arizona Diamondbacks 10-4 at Chase Field on April 19, 2026, in a game that was effectively decided before most fans had settled into their seats. The DiamondIQ model entered the evening giving Arizona a 73% chance of winning at home, but that estimate collapsed to 0% by the final out, a swing driven almost entirely by a catastrophic first inning for the Diamondbacks. Toronto plated eight runs in the top of the first, and Arizona's Kevin Gausman capitalized on every crack in the home team's early resolve. Lourdes Gurriel Jr.'s lineout in the bottom of the first cost Arizona 17.9 percentage points of win probability, and Alek Thomas followed with a ground-rule double play in the second that shed another 19.1 points, the single most damaging play of the night for the home side.
On the Toronto side, Andrés Giménez and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. were the early architects of the offensive surge. Guerrero's strikeout to open the first against Andrew Hoffmann added 17.5 percentage points to Toronto's win probability by retiring a dangerous bat early, and Giménez contributed an identical 17.5-point swing on a ground-into-double-play in the top of the second that, from Toronto's vantage point, preserved the damage Arizona might have clawed back. Kazuma Okamoto added a home run off Hoffmann in the third for a modest but clean 1.5-point boost, finishing the night with the strongest RE24 among position players at plus-2.2.
Kevin Gausman was the story on the mound, posting a game-high 36.1 percentage points of WPA for Arizona, the one bright spot in an otherwise bleak evening for the Diamondbacks. His ability to strand runners and generate the two damaging double plays kept the final margin from expanding further. Braydon Fisher and Tommy Nance were neutral in relief, each finishing at 0.0 WPA. The DiamondIQ model's lean going in heavily favored Arizona, but the Blue Jays' eight-run first inning rendered that pre-game probability entirely moot.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.