The Cincinnati Reds rallied past the Minnesota Twins 5-4 at Target Field on April 18, 2026, handing the Twins a loss despite Minnesota holding a 44 percent pre-game win probability according to the DiamondIQ model's estimate. The Reds scored in five different innings, never leading by more than a run at any point, and the game remained in the balance until the final out.
The two most consequential plays of the night came in the ninth inning. With Cincinnati threatening in the top of the ninth, Dane Myers delivered a single off Cole Sands that swung win probability 28.1 percent in the Reds' favor, pushing Cincinnati ahead and putting Minnesota in a must-score situation. The Twins then mounted a threat in the bottom half against Tony Santillan, but Matt Wallner's strikeout to end the game produced the single largest win-probability swing of the night at plus 31.6 percent, sealing the outcome. Earlier, Elly De La Cruz's single off Kody Funderburk in the top of the seventh had added 10.9 percent to Cincinnati's win probability, while Brooks Lee's fifth-inning single off Sam Moll provided Minnesota a momentary 10.2 percent boost that ultimately went unrewarded.
Among pitchers, Taj Bradley led all arms with a plus 19.3 percent WPA contribution, and Kyle Nicolas added 10.9 percent in support of the Cincinnati effort. On the offensive side, Myers finished with a combined plus 30.2 percent WPA and a 1.0 RE24, making him the most impactful Reds hitter on the night. Wallner topped all position players in WPA at plus 31.6 percent, though his minus 0.1 RE24 reflected the context of his plate appearances, while Spencer Steer contributed a quiet plus 8.0 percent WPA and 0.4 RE24 for Cincinnati.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.