Tampa Bay held off Pittsburgh 8-7 in 13 innings at PNC Park on April 18, 2026, erasing a 4-1 deficit to complete a comeback that left the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Pittsburgh win at exactly 0% by the final out. The Pirates carried a 4-0 lead into the fifth, then watched the Rays score five runs in that frame alone to flip the game on its head. Pittsburgh clawed back briefly with a run in the eighth — Nick Yorke's single off Bryan Baker adding 24.8% to the Pirates' win probability at that moment — and the game remained knotted through multiple extra frames before the pivotal 13th inning.
Cedric Mullins delivered the decisive blow, depositing a Yohan Ramírez offering for a home run in the top of the 13th that swung win probability by 51.7%, the single largest swing of the night. Earlier in the 11th, Chandler Simpson's single, also off Ramírez, had produced a 34.1% probability shift, putting Tampa Bay ahead in that frame before Pittsburgh answered with a Spencer Horwitz groundout that swung 23.7% back toward the home side. After Mullins put the Rays up by two in the 13th, Yoendrys Gómez closed the door with a Joey Bart strikeout that added 31.6% to the Tampa Bay ledger and ended Pittsburgh's final threat.
Mullins finished as the game's top performer by a wide margin, accumulating a combined WPA of plus-58.0% and an RE24 of plus-3.1. Nick Fortes contributed plus-26.0% WPA and plus-1.6 RE24 in support, while Bart's late defensive contribution at plus-31.6% WPA made him the second-highest impact player of the night despite a minus-0.1 RE24. On the mound, Paul Skenes led Pittsburgh's pitching staff with plus-19.4% WPA, followed by Justin Lawrence at plus-14.3% and Gregory Soto at plus-13.5%, none of it ultimately enough to protect a lead that once looked comfortable.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.