The Chicago Cubs defeated the New York Mets 4-2 at Wrigley Field on April 18, 2026, in a game that was largely decided by a single swing in the sixth inning. The DiamondIQ model entered the contest already favoring Chicago at 74% and watched that figure climb to a certainty as the Cubs pulled away late. The Mets managed a run in the second inning and added another in the eighth, but their seven hits produced little sustained threat against a Cubs pitching staff that kept them off-balance throughout.
The decisive moment came in the bottom of the sixth, when Carson Kelly connected on a home run off Brooks Raley that shifted win probability by 32.5 percentage points, the single largest play of the game by a wide margin. That blast capped a three-run inning that effectively ended any realistic path for New York. Earlier, Ian Happ had set the tone with a second-inning home run off Freddy Peralta that added 7.7 percentage points of win probability for Chicago. The Mets had a chance to swing things the other way in that same inning, but Dansby Swanson's flyout erased 8.5 percentage points of potential momentum. Bo Bichette grounded into a double play in the fifth, costing New York another 6.7 percentage points.
Kelly finished as the game's most impactful offensive player with a combined WPA of plus-32.5 and an RE24 of plus-2.7, while Happ contributed plus-6.8 WPA and Seiya Suzuki added plus-5.7. On the mound, Freddy Peralta was the standout, posting a plus-27.0 WPA, with Jameson Taillon contributing plus-9.6 and Caleb Thielbar adding plus-6.3 in support. Chicago's lone error did not prove costly, as the Cubs controlled the contest from the middle innings forward.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.