The San Francisco Giants survived a late-scare at Nationals Park on April 18, 2026, edging the Washington Nationals 7-6 in twelve innings. The DiamondIQ model entered the game giving Washington a 54 percent chance of winning at home, but by the final out that figure had collapsed to zero. San Francisco built its lead through a productive second inning that produced four Nationals runs and a two-run sixth that pushed the Giants to 7-5, but Washington refused to fold. The Giants carried a one-run advantage into the bottom of the ninth before the game turned dramatically, as Brady House delivered a single off Ryan Walker that swung win probability by 50.2 percentage points, pulling the Nationals to within a run and setting the stage for extra innings. A Jorbit Vivas double off Walker moments earlier had already shifted the leverage dramatically, adding 25.1 percentage points, but a Curtis Mead fielders choice out neutralized much of that threat and ultimately left Washington one run short in regulation.
With the game knotted and the Nationals holding home-field advantage deep into extras, Matt Chapman proved decisive. His single off Cionel Pérez in the top of the twelfth inning registered a win-probability swing of 36.5 percentage points, giving San Francisco the lead it would not relinquish. Chapman finished as one of the game's top performers by WPA at plus-38.8 percent with a RE24 of plus-1.5, while Heliot Ramos contributed significantly as well, posting plus-43.3 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus-1.4. On the mound, Matt Gage was the Giants' most impactful reliever, generating plus-23.3 percent WPA, with Erik Miller and Gus Varland also contributing positively. The Giants closed it out in the twelfth when Daylen Lile struck out against Caleb Kilian, a swing of 31.6 percentage points in San Francisco's favor, sealing a hard-fought road victory across sixteen hits and a grueling twelve frames.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.