The Milwaukee Brewers handed the Miami Marlins a 5-2 defeat at loanDepot park on April 18, 2026, with the DiamondIQ model having entered the game giving Miami a 37 percent chance of winning and ultimately closing at zero. Milwaukee's offense was methodical against Sandy Alcantara, scattering runs across the middle innings while the Brewers' pitching staff kept the Marlins largely in check throughout.
The game's most decisive swing came in the top of the fifth, when Brice Turang connected on a home run off Alcantara that shifted win probability 19.3 percentage points in Milwaukee's favor, effectively turning a competitive game into a Brewers advantage. A Brandon Lockridge single in the fourth had already moved the needle 10.3 points before Turang's blast, and Turang extended his damage with a single off Anthony Bender in the sixth worth another 6.8 points. On the other side of the ledger, a Gary Sanchez groundout into a double play in the third cost Miami 16.4 percentage points, representing the sharpest downward swing for the Marlins, and a Brandon Lockridge groundout in the second subtracted another 6.7 points from Milwaukee's early momentum.
Turang finished as the game's most impactful player by a significant margin, posting a cumulative WPA of plus 28.0 percent alongside a RE24 of plus 2.7. William Contreras contributed plus 7.5 percent WPA and Connor Norby added plus 6.3 percent WPA with a RE24 of plus 1.0 among Brewers position players. On the mound, Brandon Woodruff was the most valuable arm by WPA, generating plus 12.3 percentage points, with Lake Bachar and John King providing additional support out of the bullpen. The model leaned toward Milwaukee throughout the evening, and the Brewers delivered a clean road result against a Marlins club that could not capitalize on its eight hits.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.