The Arizona Diamondbacks defeated the Toronto Blue Jays 6-2 at Chase Field on April 18, 2026, in a game that was never particularly close and grew increasingly lopsided through the late innings. The DiamondIQ model entered the night favoring Arizona at 78% and ultimately closed at 100% as the Diamondbacks held Toronto to two runs despite the Blue Jays collecting 12 hits against an error-free Arizona defense.
The decisive stretch began in the bottom of the fifth, when Alek Thomas delivered a double off Max Scherzer that shifted win probability by 10.5 percentage points in Arizona's favor, opening the door for the Diamondbacks to build on their early cushion. The game's single biggest swing came in the bottom of the eighth, when Corbin Carroll launched a home run off Jeff Hoffman that added 17.7 percentage points to Arizona's win probability, effectively putting the contest out of reach. A Ketel Marte walk later in that same inning added another 10.0 percentage points, as the Diamondbacks plated four runs in the frame to extend their lead to its final margin of four. Toronto's best moment came in the top of the sixth when Kazuma Okamoto singled off Zac Gallen to generate a 10.6-point swing for the visitors, though the Blue Jays could not convert it into sustained pressure. A Lourdes Gurriel Jr. strikeout double play in the fourth off Scherzer cost Toronto 8.5 percentage points and stifled what could have been a meaningful rally.
Max Scherzer was the standout individual performer by the DiamondIQ model's accounting, finishing with a WPA of plus 26.9 to lead all pitchers, while Juan Morillo contributed plus 14.5 and Tyler Rogers added plus 8.3 in support. Among position players, Carroll led the way at plus 14.0 WPA and plus 2.2 RE24, followed by Thomas at plus 12.9 WPA and plus 0.8 RE24, and Marte at plus 6.6 WPA and plus 0.7 RE24. Arizona's 6-2 final represented the convergence of pitching efficiency and timely offense, with the bulk of the damage concentrated in the eighth inning.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.