The Milwaukee Brewers took down the Miami Marlins 7-5 in ten innings at loanDepot Park on April 17, 2026, rallying past a Marlins club that had entered the night with nearly even odds. The DiamondIQ model's estimate placed Miami's pre-game home win probability at 49%, a figure that fluctuated dramatically across the final frames before settling at 0% when the dust cleared. The game turned on a pair of high-leverage swings in opposite directions. Milwaukee's Jake Bauers delivered the decisive blow in the top of the tenth, a single off Calvin Faucher that shifted win probability by 25.1 points in the Brewers' favor, and Luis Rengifo followed with a fielder's choice that added another 18.9 points, pushing the Brewers to a three-run inning. Miami had mounted its most significant threat in the bottom of the eighth, when Agustín Ramírez doubled off Angel Zerpa to generate a 24.6-point swing for the Marlins, and Otto Lopez's home run in the bottom of the sixth off DL Hall had earlier moved the needle 21.2 points Miami's way.
Despite his heroics for Miami, Lopez finished on the losing end of the final swing of consequence, striking out against Trevor Megill in the bottom of the tenth in a moment worth 11.6 points of win probability for Milwaukee. Lopez led all position players with a combined WPA of plus 41.4 and an RE24 of plus 2.2, while Rengifo paced the Brewers with a WPA of plus 36.2 and an RE24 of plus 3.2 to go along with Bauers's plus 21.1 WPA. On the mound, Pete Fairbanks contributed the most among pitchers at plus 13.5 WPA, followed by Coleman Crow at plus 10.1 and Grant Anderson at plus 9.7. Milwaukee finished without an error across nine innings of regulation and extras, while Miami committed two. The DiamondIQ model leans toward recognizing the Brewers' late-game bullpen performance and Rengifo's run-production as the structural difference in a game that remained genuinely competitive into the tenth.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.