The Colorado Rockies handed the Houston Astros a 3-2 defeat at Daikin Park on April 16, 2026, scoring all three of their runs in the first four innings and holding on through a tense finish. Houston entered with a 44 percent win probability according to the DiamondIQ model's pre-game estimate, but that figure collapsed to zero by the final out. Colorado built its lead with a two-run first inning and added single runs in the third and fourth, the latter courtesy of a Hunter Goodman home run off Ryan Weiss that carried a win-probability swing of plus-11.3 percent. The Rockies' early offensive burst proved to be exactly enough, as their bullpen then methodically protected the margin over the final five frames.
The game's most consequential sequence unfolded late, and it was defined as much by Houston's missed opportunities as by Colorado's execution. Carlos Correa kept the Astros alive with a double off Chase Dollander in the sixth that swung win probability by plus-14.3 percent, but his lineout off Jaden Hill in the seventh wiped away 14.6 percent of Houston's chances. Taylor Trammell's lineout off Jimmy Herget in the eighth cost the Astros another 16.5 percent. The defining moment came in the bottom of the ninth, when Isaac Paredes flew out against Victor Vodnik with runners presumably on base, a swing of plus-27.0 percent in Colorado's favor that effectively sealed the outcome.
Among individual performers, Isaac Paredes led all batters with a plus-36.7 percent WPA despite the game ending on his out, a reflection of the accumulation of plate appearances he generated in high-leverage situations. Jose Altuve contributed plus-18.0 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus-0.6, while Brenton Doyle posted plus-13.1 percent WPA and led position players with a plus-1.1 RE24. On the pitching side, Jimmy Herget was the bullpen's most valuable arm at plus-23.3 percent WPA, supported by Chase Dollander at plus-14.8 percent and AJ Blubaugh at plus-12.6 percent. The DiamondIQ model had leaned toward Houston entering the night, but Colorado's front-loaded offense and disciplined relief work rendered that projection obsolete by the fifth inning.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.