The Los Angeles Angels handed the New York Yankees an 11-4 defeat at Yankee Stadium on April 16, 2026, erasing what the DiamondIQ model had estimated as a 54 percent pre-game home win probability for New York and reducing it to zero by the final out. The Angels scored twice in the first inning to grab an early lead, and while the Yankees responded with a pair of runs in the third — capped by a Giancarlo Stanton home run off Nick Sandlin that swung win probability 21.0 percent in New York's favor — Los Angeles answered with a four-run sixth inning that turned the game decisively.
That sixth inning was the pivot point. Josh Lowe's single off Fernando Cruz shifted win probability 18.7 percent toward the Angels, and Oswald Peraza followed with a double off Max Fried worth another 17.8 percent swing. Vaughn Grissom added a single off Cruz that moved the needle an additional 14.7 percent, completing a burst that effectively ended New York's chances. The Angels tacked on a run in the seventh and four more in the eighth to put the game fully out of reach, with Ben Rice's home run off Sam Aldegheri providing New York's lone sixth-inning response at plus 11.2 percent.
Among the standout performers, Grissom and Lowe each finished with a WPA of plus 18.2 percent, with Lowe posting a slightly better RE24 of plus 1.0 to Grissom's plus 0.9. Stanton led all batters in run-environment impact at plus 1.5 RE24 despite the Yankees' loss, finishing with a WPA of plus 16.2 percent. On the mound, Sam Bachman was the Angels' most valuable arm by the DiamondIQ model's estimate, contributing plus 13.8 percent in win probability, with Brent Suter adding plus 5.5 percent in support.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.