The Cincinnati Reds handed the San Francisco Giants a decisive 8-3 defeat at Great American Ball Park on April 15, 2026, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Cincinnati win climbing from a pre-game 54 percent all the way to 100 percent by the final out. The Reds did the bulk of their damage early, scoring four runs in the first inning and three more in the second to effectively put the game out of reach before San Francisco could mount any meaningful response.
The most impactful sequence of the game came off the bat of Sal Stewart, who finished as the game's top performer by a wide margin at +18.2 percent WPA and +4.6 RE24. Stewart drove a home run off Tyler Mahle in the first inning that swung win probability 5.1 percent in Cincinnati's favor, then followed with another home run in the second that added another 13.2 percent, representing the single largest win-probability swing of the night. Spencer Steer added to the damage with a strikeout situation that shifted 8.8 percent toward Cincinnati in the second, and Tyler Stephenson contributed a 7.2 percent swing via strikeout in the first. On the pitching side, Rhett Lowder led all pitchers at +7.8 percent WPA, with Drew Gilbert's groundout in the top of the second representing the lone significant moment in San Francisco's favor at -6.7 percent. Giants starter Tyler Mahle absorbed the damage throughout a punishing early stretch, while Lowder and his Cincinnati counterparts held the Giants to three runs on nine hits with no errors allowed.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.