The St. Louis Cardinals walked off the Cleveland Guardians 6-5 in ten innings on April 14, 2026, at Busch Stadium, erasing a deficit in the final frames to claim a victory the DiamondIQ model had given the home side just a 54 percent chance of winning before first pitch. Cleveland held the upper hand through much of the contest, but a chaotic eighth inning and a series of late Cardinals rallies flipped the outcome entirely, with the model's estimate climbing to 100 percent by the final out.
The pivotal sequence began in the bottom of the eighth, when JJ Wetherholt launched a home run off Erik Sabrowski that swung win probability by 23.9 points in St. Louis's favor, pulling the Cardinals back into contention after George Valera had given Cleveland a boost with a double off Ryne Stanek worth 20.0 points for the Guardians in the top half of that same inning. Those two eighth-inning swings set the stage for the defining moment of the game: with the contest tied and moving to extras, Yohel Pozo stroked a double off Cade Smith in the bottom of the ninth, a hit that carried a staggering 44.3-point win-probability swing and very nearly ended the game on the spot. Cleveland survived that threat, but Nathan Church delivered the decisive blow in the tenth, lifting a sacrifice fly off Tim Herrin that added another 35.9 points of win probability and brought St. Louis home with the win.
Wetherholt finished as the Cardinals' most complete offensive contributor, posting a combined WPA of 30.2 percent and an RE24 of plus-2.2, while Pozo's clutch double earned him 24.9 percent in WPA despite a negative run-expectancy figure. Church's walkoff sacrifice fly gave him the single highest WPA mark of any batter at 35.9 percent. On the pitching side, Joey Cantillo led all Cardinals arms with a WPA of plus-20.5 percent, supported by JoJo Romero at plus-13.1 and Michael McGreevy at plus-9.7, as St. Louis's bullpen ultimately proved decisive in holding Cleveland's lineup in check through the extra frame.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.