The Minnesota Twins routed the Boston Red Sox 13-6 at Target Field on April 13, 2026, a game that was effectively decided before the third inning was over. The DiamondIQ model entered the night with Minnesota as a modest 54% favorite, but by the end of the second inning that estimate had climbed to near certainty, ultimately closing at 100% as the Twins posted 11 combined runs across the first two frames.
The decisive stretch came early and often. Minnesota plated four runs in the bottom of the first, a rally built on contributions from Brooks Lee, whose single off Garrett Crochet generated a 2.9% win-probability swing, and Luke Keaschall, whose double added another 2.3%. Ryan Kreidler's pop out in that same inning paradoxically registered a net positive 7.2% swing for Minnesota in context, reflecting the leverage of the situation and the overall collapse of Boston's pitching. The Twins then erupted for seven more runs in the second against Crochet and the Red Sox staff, and any remaining doubt was extinguished in the bottom half of that inning when Byron Buxton's strikeout against Jovani Moran produced the game's single largest win-probability swing at plus 11.0%, underscoring how loaded the situation was and how thoroughly Minnesota had seized control.
Buxton led all players by WPA at plus 11.4% with a RE24 of plus 0.9, while Keaschall was the most productive run-contributor among Minnesota's lineup with a RE24 of plus 1.3 to go with a plus 4.0% WPA. Bailey Ober was the pitching standout, generating plus 10.5% in WPA while the Red Sox offense managed six runs on ten hits against the Twins staff but committed one error. Boston's best opportunity evaporated in the top of the second when Marcelo Mayer's pop out off Ober cost the Red Sox 9.2% in win probability, effectively ending any realistic path back into the game.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.