The Philadelphia Phillies defeated the Chicago Cubs 13-7 at Citizens Bank Park on April 13, 2026, in a game that was never truly in doubt after the middle innings. The DiamondIQ model opened with a 54 percent pre-game home win probability for Philadelphia and closed at 100 percent, reflecting the Phillies' methodical takeover of a contest that featured some early back-and-forth tension. Philadelphia scattered 15 hits while Chicago managed 11, though three Philadelphia errors kept the Cubs within reach longer than the score might otherwise suggest.
The decisive swing of momentum came in the bottom of the third, when Kyle Schwarber launched a home run off Javier Assad, a play the DiamondIQ model credited with a win-probability swing of plus-11.4 percent. Chicago briefly answered in the top of the fourth, as Dansby Swanson connected for a home run off Cristopher Sánchez that shifted win probability by plus-12.4 percent in the Cubs' favor, representing the single largest positive swing for either side. However, any Cubs momentum dissolved in the bottom of the fifth, where Brandon Marsh delivered a two-base hit worth plus-7.8 percent in win probability and Philadelphia plated five runs to effectively put the game away. Ian Happ's grounded-into-double-play in the top of the fifth, costing Chicago minus-11.2 percent in win probability, proved to be the moment the door closed on any Chicago comeback.
Schwarber finished as the game's most impactful offensive performer by the DiamondIQ model's measure, posting a WPA of plus-16.0 and an RE24 of plus-3.0. Marsh was close behind at plus-10.5 WPA and plus-2.4 RE24, while Swanson led Chicago's contributors at plus-9.9 WPA despite the Cubs' loss. Cristopher Sánchez was the most valuable arm of the night, credited with a WPA of plus-6.2 despite surrendering Swanson's fourth-inning shot, and the model leans toward Philadelphia's pitching staff as the primary driver of the Cubs' inability to sustain any late rally after Chicago scored five in the eighth against a largely decided game.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.