The Chicago Cubs defeated the Pittsburgh Pirates 7-6 at Wrigley Field on April 12, 2026, in a game that the DiamondIQ model opened with a 54 percent home win probability and closed at 100 percent, the decisive turns coming late after Pittsburgh had built a four-run cushion through two innings.
The Pirates threatened to seize full control in the top of the second when Brandon Lowe connected on a home run off Jameson Taillon, a swing the DiamondIQ model valued at plus 13.1 percent win probability that pushed Pittsburgh's lead to 5-0 at that point in the game. Chicago chipped away, but the biggest single moment of the contest arrived in the bottom of the eighth, when Michael Busch laced a single off Justin Lawrence that swung win probability by plus 33.9 percent, the largest such shift of the night. That hit rewrote the game's trajectory entirely. The Cubs then finished the job in the ninth against José Urquidy, with Michael Conforto delivering a double worth plus 17.5 percent win probability followed by a Carson Kelly single at plus 15.9 percent that completed the comeback.
Among individual performers, Busch led all batters with plus 33.9 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus 1.7, while Lowe paced Pittsburgh with plus 13.6 percent WPA and a game-high RE24 of plus 4.4 despite finishing on the losing side. On the mound, Bubba Chandler was the most valuable Cubs arm by win probability at plus 15.0 percent, followed by Daniel Palencia at plus 13.5 percent, the two of them doing the foundational work that kept Chicago close enough for the late-inning surge to matter.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.