The Atlanta Braves routed the Cleveland Guardians 13-1 at Truist Park on April 12, 2026, turning what opened as a near coin-flip into a foregone conclusion by the middle innings. The DiamondIQ model's estimate of Atlanta's win probability began the game at 54 percent and climbed steadily to 100 percent as the Braves piled up 19 hits without committing an error against a Cleveland club that managed just nine hits and one run across nine innings.
The decisive damage came early and often against Guardians starter Tanner Bibee. The second inning was the game's pivotal frame, with the DiamondIQ model registering a combined series of swings that buried Cleveland's chances. A Ronald Acuña Jr. double added 6.6 percent to Atlanta's win probability, a Jorge Mateo single contributed another 6.3 percent, and a Mauricio Dubón double pushed Atlanta's probability up a further 7.2 percent. Although a Dominic Smith groundout into a double play briefly cost Atlanta 5.3 percent, Smith more than compensated in the fourth inning with a home run off Bibee that represented the single largest win-probability swing of the game at plus 8.2 percent. The Braves added four more in the fifth and four again in the eighth to put the margin well beyond reach.
Among individual performers measured by the DiamondIQ model's win-probability accounting, Acuña led Atlanta's position players at plus 7.2 percent WPA and plus 2.2 RE24, while Dubón checked in at plus 6.9 percent WPA and plus 1.8 RE24, and Mateo contributed plus 6.0 percent WPA and plus 1.4 RE24. On the mound, Chris Sale was the standout by a considerable margin, posting a plus 14.2 percent WPA that reflected his ability to suppress Cleveland's offense and hold the game firmly in Atlanta's control throughout his outing.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.